Doing nothing is also an investment decision. Just without a return.
One sentence has been heard remarkably often in meetings this year: “We will wait a little longer.” It sounds prudent. Most of the time, it is an unspoken bet that uncertainty is a temporary condition rather than the operating temperature of the coming decade.
The reasons are real. Growth forecasts are being revised downwards, the path of interest rates remains difficult to read, and tariffs and trade policy can change calculations overnight. [Evidence: current KOF or SECO forecast]
But the bill for waiting never appears in an investment proposal. It shows up elsewhere: in maintenance budgets that grow a little every year; in electricity costs per unit produced; in scrap rates that no one questions because they are considered part of the machine; in downtime accepted as “normal”; and in orders that are never quoted because capacity is lacking.
These costs have an awkward characteristic: they are diffuse. A six-figure investment proposal is reviewed, challenged and postponed. The same amount, spread over four years of repairs, energy losses and foregone contribution margins, never reaches a meeting.
The underlying error goes deeper. We treat investment as a risk and waiting as a neutral position. It is not. Waiting is a position with costs; they are simply recognised later, under different account codes.
This does not mean that every investment is right today. The case against a major investment is often justified. But the alternative to “renew everything” is not “do nothing”. It is to invest selectively where the bottleneck lies and align the financing structure with the uncertainty.
A manufacturing SME does not have to replace its entire machine fleet. It can lease an energy-efficient key machine that reduces scrap and power consumption, with predictable instalments instead of a major capital outlay.
The more honest question is therefore not: Can we afford this investment? It is: How much longer can we afford the old machine?
Who among you has worked through this calculation properly and been surprised by the result?