The Swiss National Bank has left its policy rate unchanged at 0%. That was hardly a surprise. What matters more is what is changing beneath the headline rate.
Inflation stood at 0.8% in August. The SNB now expects inflation of 0.7% in 2026 and 0.8% in both 2027 and 2028. At the same time, the Swiss economy is proving more resilient than expected. For 2026, the central bank forecasts growth of between 1.5% and 2%.
There is another factor that matters almost as much to the SNB as inflation: the Swiss franc has weakened.
That changes the debate.
Only a few months ago, the question was whether Switzerland might return to negative interest rates. Banks are increasingly asking the opposite question: when might the SNB raise rates again?
ZKB sees no need for action in 2026. But the combination of stronger growth, a weaker franc and higher inflation risks has shifted the balance. A window for higher rates could open in 2027. Current market commentary cites ZKB as seeing gradual rate increases potentially starting from March 2027.
UBS also sees the interest-rate cycle moving upwards. It expects two increases, in March and June 2027. But the second part of its analysis is just as important: a significant part of this move is already priced into capital markets.
Raiffeisen is more cautious. Underlying inflationary pressure remains moderate, giving the SNB room to wait. But here too, the market increasingly expects a departure from the zero-rate policy next year.
What can we conclude?
Not that rates are about to rise.
But that the direction of the debate has changed.
Switzerland remains a low-interest-rate country. The SNB itself continues to forecast price stability, and its inflation forecast is based on a policy rate remaining unchanged at 0% throughout the forecast horizon.
But the asymmetric debate of recent years is slowly disappearing. Negative rates are no longer the dominant scenario. At the same time, a return to significantly higher interest rates is not the base case either.
The most interesting scenario may therefore lie somewhere in between:
Switzerland could leave the era of zero interest rates without leaving the era of low interest rates.
For companies and investors, that distinction matters more than it may initially seem.
Because capital markets do not wait for the SNB’s next decision. They start pricing it in beforehand.
Sources:
SNB – Monetary policy assessment, 24 September 2026
https://www.snb.ch/de/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924
ZKB – Interest rate and economic forecasts
https://www.zkb.ch/de/private/hypotheken-immobilien/rechner-hilfsmittel/prognosen.html
ZKB – Swiss GDP and interest-rate outlook
https://www.zkb.ch/de/private/blog/private/anlegen/markt-trends/wir-erhoehen-die-schweizer-bip-prognosen.html
UBS – Global rise in interest rates: Implications for Swiss investors and mortgages
https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealthmanagement/insights/marketnews/article.3784639.html
UBS – Current Swiss interest-rate outlook
https://www.ubs.com/ch/de/services/mortgages-and-financing/mortgages/interest-rates.html
Raiffeisen – Interest-rate developments and SNB outlook
https://www.raiffeisen.ch/rch/de/wissen/wohnen/zinsentwicklung.html
SRF/AWP – Economists’ reactions to the SNB decision
https://www.srf.ch/news/wirtschaft/geldpolitische-lage-snb-belaesst-leitzins-bei-null-prozent